CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2026-08-16T19:48:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2026 Aug 17 1231 UTC
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 60817
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Aug 2026, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Aug 2026  10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 006 PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Aug 2026  10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 014 PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Aug 2026  10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 023

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C8.2 flare (SIDC Flare 8380), peaking at 19:28 UTC on August 16, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 939 (NOAA Active Region 4506, magnetic type beta). There are currently four numbered active regions on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 940 (NOAA Active Region 4507) is the most complex group with magnetic type beta-gamma. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A wide Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 710) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting from around 19:48 UTC on August 16, directed mainly westward. The CME is associated with a C8.2 flare peaking at 19:28 UTC on August 16 from SIDC Sunspot Group 939 (NOAA Active Region 4506), located in the northwest quadrant. Preliminary analysis indicates a possible glancing blow arrival at Earth late on August 20. Further analysis is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters reflected slow solar wind conditions. Speed values were around 300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values ranged between 3 nT and 8 nT. The Bz component varied between -4 nT and 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the positive sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to persist over the next 24 hours, with possible enhancements later in the period due to the potential arrival of a glancing blow associated with the partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 707), observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting from around 07:12 UTC on August 14.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at quiet levels over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp 1 to 2, K BEL 1 to 2). Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with a chance for isolated unsettled to active intervals later in the period due to a possible arrival of a glancing blow associated with the partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 707), observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting from around 07:12 UTC on August 14.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 083, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 16 Aug 2026
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 129
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : ///
AK WINGST              : 004
ESTIMATED AP           : 003
ESTIMATED ISN          : 096, BASED ON 26 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END

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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #

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